Balance Sheet Reconstruction
The law recognizes two types of “insolvency,” balance sheet and equity insolvency. Balance sheet insolvency occurs when an entity’s recorded liabilities exceed its recorded assets. Equity insolvency results when an entity cannot in the ordinary course of its business pay its obligations when due in accordance with their contractual terms. All commercial banks are equity insolvent by that definition all the time. A large percentage of all banks liabilities are due on demand. Banks do not maintain enough cash on hand or other assets that are immediately convertible to cash on established markets to pay all of those demand obligations immediately. That is why no bank can survive an unrestrained bank run. Thus, the traditional equity insolvency definition is not applied to banks. Instead, banks are only deemed insolvent under a liquidity, or equity, test when they fail to pay their obligations when those obligations are declared due by the bank’s customers.
Two insolvency tests are necessary because we expect businesses to pay their debts when due and because we require business owners to have “skin in the game” before we allow them to take business risks with other peoples’ funds, be that borrowed, trade or employee debt. A balance sheet is indicative of the latter, but it is not designed to indicate effective liquidity management. Asset balances on traditional balance sheets generally reflect the historical costs of investments made by management to generate income. Except for inventory the assets reflected are not intended to be sold. Instead, for a non-trading business, assets are intended to be held for their useful lives to generate income. Whether those assets can be sold for immediate cash in the amount reflected as their “value” on the balance sheet is in most cases doubtful. Assets can be sold for cash at optimal values only where there are liquid markets for assets of that type. For liquid markets to be maintained, assets have to have a high level of fungibility as well as a substantial pool of interested and reasonably knowledgeable buyers. Non-trading business assets generally do not meet that test. Nevertheless, assuming that GAAP has been followed, asset values reflected on a balance sheet are indicative of “skin in the game.”
In recent years finance academics sold on “efficient market” theories and enamored with college sophomore mathematics, together with analysts interested in creating volatile markets to increase trading profits, have united with like thinkers at the SEC to push “mark to market” balance sheet accounting for most financial products. Much of the finance theory on which this movement was based has been discredited by economic events since 2008, but the movement has influenced the way many think about balance sheet values of financial assets. There has developed a tendency toward the uncritical assumption that “market value” is in some sense the right “value.” That tendency has infected the bank regulatory process and has been a significant factor in the failure of a number of banks, banks which I believe were improvidently closed.
Commercial banks serve as financial intermediaries making credit available to those whose needs are not served by the securities markets. To qualify for credit in the securities markets a company usually has to be public and large. Generally, such companies incur substantial costs in making all of their material business information available to the public where it is analyzed by numerous professionals such that those companies’ businesses and prospects become public knowledge equally available to all participants in the securities markets. Their reward is credit on better terms than that generally available to bank borrowers. To serve the non-public debt market, banks have to develop such company information over time and analyze it on their own. That requires detailed knowledge of the customer’s operations and people. To do that effectively, a long-term relationship is often invaluable.
Given these contrasting circumstances, it should be no surprise that bank loans cannot be immediately sold for cash at their recorded values. Even if the market could immediately learn all that the bank knows about the customer, given the typical size of a bank loan, there would never be enough market participants willing to learn that information to assure a fair market price since learning has a cost which can only be justified if you have a reasonable prospect of making the investment. Generally, the only market for such loans is a limited number of “vulture” investors willing to take a chance with less than ideal information in exchange for extraordinary returns. The prices they will pay represent a significant discount to the bank’s investment.
Thus, the immediate liquidation of any traditional commercial bank will result in a loss almost without regard to capital levels within whatever ranges are considered prudent. Advocates for “mark-to-market” balance sheet values don’t seem to understand this phenomenon. Banks are in business for the relatively long haul. Their balance sheets reflect that. Bank loans earn rates higher than those available for equivalent publically traded bonds to enable the bank to recover its greater costs associated with making those loans, but they cannot front load their charges to cover those costs or cash out at the drop of a hat and make a profit. The bank business model requires a longer view.
This difference in business assumptions between the academic finance/securities professionals and bankers was demonstrated a few years ago when the SEC called SunTrust to task for overstating its allowance for loan losses. Bankers believe that they should set aside a percentage of all loans they make for possible loan losses in good times and bad. They manage the bank to the best of their ability to get through the normal business cycle which includes highs and lows, and loan losses are in part a function of making loans in a cyclical economic environment. The SEC, on the other hand, believes loan losses are a function of bad times and that during good times very limited reserves are appropriate. That’s a trader’s mindset, that profits and losses are attributable to market moves, not longer term strategies. Traders make money on volume and volatility, taking advantage of the cycles. Bankers save in good times to survive the bad times. The SEC calls that “managing earnings.” Bankers call that managing.
To their credit, the bank regulators largely sided with the banks in the SEC’s attack on bank loan loss reserve methodologies, and an uneasy truce resulted. However, it appears that regulators only supported the banks reflexively because the bankers’ position resulted in a “more conservative” balance sheet with less capital. There is no indication that the regulators understand accounting theory and why a trader’s balance sheet is fundamentally different from that of an entity engaged in a long-term business enterprise. This misunderstanding is illustrated by the FDIC’s current examination practices in Georgia related to reserving for loan losses and determining the “fair value” of troubled assets.
In reserving for loan losses GAAP requires reserve percentages to take into account a bank’s lending history. If a bank has historically incurred losses equal to 0.50 % of total loans, the current loan loss reserve for loans not identified as being problems should reflect that history, larger reserves being required for specifically identified problem loans. There can be legitimate differences of opinion as to how history is defined. Is it, say, a one year average or a five year average? There may be rational reasons for selecting one historical period in preference to another. However, in examining Georgia banks recently, the FDIC has insisted that bank reserving formulas shorten the selected historical period to the last two years or even the last six months, whichever yields the highest percentage loss history, asserting that the shorter, current period is “more indicative of recent experience.” That makes no sense by any standard.
The reason historical percentages are applied to pools of loans not specifically identified as problems is not because you expect that you will lose that percentage of each loan. Instead, you expect that some percentage of the pool will become problems resulting in losses totaling that percentage of the pool. Theoretically, if you have a static pool of loans, as the pool ages and individual problem loans are identified, the expected loss percentage applied to that part of the pool not identified as problems should go down because the identification of the problems eliminates the need to apply the historical percentage to the remaining pool of performing loans in order to reserve consistent with the historical loss experience. That is exactly the position of most banks in Georgia today. In the last two or three years they have not been making many new loans. The old pool has aged and problems have been identified. Loans that are continuing to perform represent credits either unaffected by the Great Recession or those able to withstand its reversals. To reserve as if that pool will suffer greater losses because extraordinary losses have been incurred by those less prepared for economic reversals is nonsense designed for no purpose other than depleting capital and avoiding any conceivable subsequent criticism for being “too soft” on troubled banks. Perhaps if the Great Recession continues forever, most banks and businesses will eventually fail, but I know of no legal or accounting standard that compels that assumption.
This same approach has been followed by the FDIC in determining “fair value” for Georgia banks’ troubled assets. Generally (but over-simplified), GAAP requires troubled bank assets to be recorded at “fair value.” Accounting literature defines “fair value” as follows:
Fair value is the price that would be received to sell an asset or paid to transfer a liability in an orderly transaction between market participants at the measurement date.
A fair value measurement assumes that the asset or liability is exchanged in an orderly transaction between market participants to sell the asset or transfer the liability at the measurement date. An orderly transaction is a transaction that assumes exposure to the market for a period prior to the measurement date to allow for marketing activities that are usual and customary for transactions involving such assets or liabilities; it is not a forced transaction (for example, a forced liquidation or distress sale). The transaction to sell the asset or transfer the liability is a hypothetical transaction at the measurement date, considered from the perspective of a market participant that holds the asset or owes the liability. Therefore, the objective of a fair value measurement is to determine the price that would be received to sell the asset or paid to transfer the liability at the measurement date (an exit price). [FASB Standard No. 57]
“Fair value” as defined is currently a true “hypothetical” price in Georgia representing what someone would sell for as an alternative to continuing to hold for better market conditions, giving rational consideration to the costs to hold as well as the timing of predicted market improvement. That price is very subjective, and the FDIC does not like subjectivity. Therefore, the FDIC forces Georgia banks to write down troubled assets to a demonstrable immediate cash value which inevitably is a distress price, taking comfort in the “theory” that cash prices are what should appear on balance sheets under “modern” mark-to-market accounting, accounting only appropriate for traders and others with very short term time horizons.
The FDIC’s current examination practices in Georgia relating to reserving for loan losses and determining the “fair value” of troubled assets have destroyed a lot of banks’ shareholders’ “skin in the game” by insisting that loan loss reserves and asset values be based on prices below which any rational investor with the ability to hold would voluntarily sell. Selling at distress prices might be required to stop a “run,” but banks buy, and pay dearly for, deposit insurance to limit that risk.
Shelia Bair’s last speech as chairman of the FDIC was an attack on “short-termism” as the destroyer of modern business and our economy. She should have given that speech to her troops long before she left.